Iowa Caucus Day: What the Vote Will Hinge Upon

Today marks the first voting of the 2016 presidential election cycle– the Iowa caucus. It is the first time the candidates will be rated based on actual votes rather than by polls and political strategists, making today the beginning of this cycle’s voting process. The caucuses will begin at 7:00pm tonight, and the majority of the results are likely to be reported to the Party headquarters and, subsequently, the media, any time after 9pm Central time. So what does this look like for GOP candidates?

According to the Wall Street Journal, GOP-frontrunner Donald Trump is banking on the “newcomer” vote for his success. Strategists predict that a larger voter turnout in Iowa, particularly those voters who are caucusing for the first time, will increase Trump’s likelihood for success. Trump has recently been traveling around the state and campaigning in different areas, drawing applause for his debate boycott and attention to veterans. Cruz, Trump’s close rival, who continues to be supported by Iowa’s evangelical leaders, believes the state will back him. Mentioning that Trump’s consistent attacks on him are due to the closeness of the polls, he is making his rounds in Iowa to gain last-minute support.

What about a “strong third” Republican candidate? We constantly hear about Trump and Cruz, but a candidate who comes in third with enough of a lead against the rest of the field may have an opportunity to gain traction going into the New Hampshire primary, according to a USA Today source. Finally, with so many GOP candidates, who doesn’t survive Iowa and what are the repercussions? Many are likely to come out of the caucuses with little to no support, making it difficult for them to continue justifying their campaign runs.

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